We haven't had a hard frost yet. I looked it up: at least four consecutive hours of air temperatures that are below 28 degrees Fahrenheit (-2°C). That's according to Old Farmer's Almanac.
The Almanac has been helping us along since 1792, when it was founded by Robert B. Thomas. It became "Old" in 1832 because it had survived longer than similarly named competitors, and that became the official title in 1848. The cover has been the same since 1855.
It contains forecasts and 'indications' of temperature and precipitation for the U.S. and Canada and has editions for the different regions. What I immediately was surprised by was its prediction that we are entering an era of global cooling rather than warming. Here's the quote from 2009, and it is showcased on their website:
"There is another possible explanation for—or, at least, influence on—climate change. This involves natural factors, most notably the Sun and Earth’s oceans. We at the Almanac are among those who believe that sunspot cycles and their effects on oceans correlate with climate changes. Studying these and other factors suggests that a cold, not warm, climate may be in our future."
And what about the August forecast of the "polar coaster" winter? They say it will be full of so many ups and downs on the thermometer that it may remind a person of a Polar Coaster. I would expect that made the headlines in all the newspapers - a fun metaphor.
The Almanac forecasting methods are controversial and suspect - for being secret. Today's scientific methods are reviewed in peer panels. Gone are the days of the secret herbs and spices recipes in any scientific area.
I wonder what Butchart Gardens looks like today. Their blog has a long list of plants blooming today and a picture of their European purple beech trees in fall colour. These pictures were taken at the beginning of September. What a contrast with the view out the window today in November.
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