We haven't had a hard frost yet. I looked it up: at least four consecutive hours of air temperatures that are below 28 degrees Fahrenheit (-2°C). That's according to Old Farmer's Almanac.
The Almanac has been helping us along since 1792, when it was founded by Robert B. Thomas. It became "Old" in 1832 because it had survived longer than similarly named competitors, and that became the official title in 1848. The cover has been the same since 1855.
It contains forecasts and 'indications' of temperature and precipitation for the U.S. and Canada and has editions for the different regions. What I immediately was surprised by was its prediction that we are entering an era of global cooling rather than warming. Here's the quote from 2009, and it is showcased on their website:
"There is another possible explanation for—or, at least, influence on—climate change. This involves natural factors, most notably the Sun and Earth’s oceans. We at the Almanac are among those who believe that sunspot cycles and their effects on oceans correlate with climate changes. Studying these and other factors suggests that a cold, not warm, climate may be in our future."
And what about the August forecast of the "polar coaster" winter? They say it will be full of so many ups and downs on the thermometer that it may remind a person of a Polar Coaster. I would expect that made the headlines in all the newspapers - a fun metaphor.
The Almanac forecasting methods are controversial and suspect - for being secret. Today's scientific methods are reviewed in peer panels. Gone are the days of the secret herbs and spices recipes in any scientific area.
I wonder what Butchart Gardens looks like today. Their blog has a long list of plants blooming today and a picture of their European purple beech trees in fall colour. These pictures were taken at the beginning of September. What a contrast with the view out the window today in November.
Can Autumn surge? We don't think of this season as arriving in flows, waves or billows. We don't think of Autumn as arising either. A poetry website summarizes how Autumn has been portrayed in poems:
"Autumn is the time of ripening. All hopes of spring and all actions of summer are finished with autumn. Nature in its adult state inspires for solitude and thinking. Carpet of orange, yellow and brown leafs is the best field for long walks. After gathering all harvest autumn offers time to think about all that had happened in two past seasons. Poetry about autumn is mostly sad and nostalgic. Those poems are filled with memories of past. Creators of those pieces recall their past times and share them to all readers. And in many ways this type of read is pleasant."
What are the great Autumn poems? Well, there is one that shines above all overs. It is John Keats' poem "To Autumn."
This poem is universally considered one of the most perfect short poems in the English language. The work marks the end of his very short poetic career, and life. A little over a year following the publication of "To Autumn", Keats died in Rome of tuberculosis.
Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness
Close bosom-friend of the maturing sun
Conspiring with him how to load and bless
With fruit the vines that round the thatch-eves run;
To bend with apples the moss'd cottage-trees,
And fill all fruit with ripeness to the core;
To swell the gourd, and plump the hazel shells
With a sweet kernel; to set budding more,
And still more, later flowers for the bees,
Until they think warm days will never cease,
For Summer has o'er-brimm'd their clammy cells.
The full poem is here. Our picture today denies that Autumn has arrived. These are pictures of Victoria's Butchart Garden gelato cafe, and then the enclosed restaurant garden. These are the Autumn gardens that lull us into thinking "warm days will never cease".
