Do you remember the predictions of RethinkX for the next 10, 20, 30 and more years? And some of them seem ordinary and others seem outrageous.
The report on agriculture and farming is like science fiction to me. The science fiction part is the prediction that by 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50% and the cattle farming industry will be all but bankrupt. It will be replaced by a Food-as-Software model, where foods are engineered by scientists at a molecular level. The cost of proteins will be five times cheaper by 2030 and 10 times cheaper by 2035 than existing animal proteins, before ultimately approaching the cost of sugar. They will also be superior in every key attribute – more nutritious, healthier, better tasting, and more convenient, with almost unimaginable variety. This means that, by 2030, modern food products will be higher quality and cost less than half as much to produce as the animal-derived products they replace.
There are now many articles on these proteins and their availability - it isn't science fiction to me anymore. Likely our focus on COVID is what keeps the progress backgrounded.
What about their latest report? I received the notice of their report on the energy sector and it predicts a dramatic disruption. Their investigation indicates that leading analyst organizations, both government and private, have inaccurately estimated what is known as "levelized costs of electricity" (LCOE) for coal, natural gas and hydro power plants. This had made these types of fuel appear to be better investments than they are. Solar, wind, and batteries are the disruptors. Financial market corrections will mean the bursting of a trillion-dollar bubble similar to the subprime mortgage housing bubble. That was a big ouch known as the great recession. They say something similar can happen.
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