Monday, November 4, 2024

Nov 4 2024 - Mega-Polling

 

There is a lot of coverage over the difficulties of polling in the US.  Today's headline says that a British company Focaldata has conducted a poll with a new methodology.  It is MRP - multilevel regression and post-stratification.  It is known as "mega-polls" and predicted Theresa May's loss when other polls suggested she would win.  So it is getting attention. Particularly since it says that Harris will win.  

We can go to 338Canada  and see the same - their poll shows that Harris will win over Trump.  The charts are very interesting - very stylish, too.  Take a look HERE.  The one that gets my attention is the tipping point chart.  Pennsylvania!

But what about here in Ontario and Canada?  We can look at the popular vote projection for Ontario and it shows the Conservatives far ahead.  And the same is true of the Canada Federal projection.  Can you imagine having both Ontario and Federal with Conservative majorities?  Wouldn't that be an historical event?

Too many historical events seem to be taking place.  I think that's why there were crowds of people at the Watering Can on Saturday doing vast amounts of Christmas shopping.  


Here's a collage of some of the water colour images made interesting shapes with Flexify.

Very cheerful for a dull November day.  
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