When do we normally get winter forecasts in the headlines? El Niño has hit the news this week because it is early and strong. it is being called Super El Niño. One headline says there is a 90% chance of a very strong event in the Norther Hemisphere this fall and winter. The polar vortex expression has entered the prediction conversation. Another possibility is record highs and above-average winter temperatures. That's for us in North America. In other countries such as Australia and southern Asia drought is predicted. Severe flooding is possible in South America and the Horn of Africa.
This has become top news because there is such intensity so early this year, and the temperatures are already higher. Looking at the specific descriptions, there are expressions that are new to me. I don't think of water piling up. That's near Indonesia. Then that pile of warm water will rush back toward South America. There are normal things like this in the ocean - bulges. I don't think of water forming bulges but the gravitational pull from the moon and sun cause shifts in huge volumes of water that create regional bulges thousands of miles wide. Lake Ontario doesn't have any permanent water bulges but has tilted slopes of water called storm surges. Lake Erie is more prone to water pile-ups and bulges.
The biggest permanent sea-surface "mound" of ocean water happens near the Philippines at 6.5 feet higher than the average sea level. It is called a "perennial topographic hill known as the western Pacific warm pool", or a standing water dome.
Take worst case scenarios - Storm Eddie in 2024 caused open-ocean waves nearly 65 feet tall. Southern Ocean Buoy in 2018 measured a 78 foot wave. Put that through the imagination filters and see a wave that is as high as a building of 6 to 8 stories. Thanks to the CBC video for an illustration.
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