Dec 27 2020 - Betwixt Brexit

 

It is just a few days from now,  Britain on its own. Boris Johnson's remarks got my attention!  “All that’s really saying is the UK won’t immediately send children up chimneys or pour raw sewage all over its beaches,” he said. “We’re not going to regress, and you’d expect that.” What is he referring to? "This practice of sending small boys up and down chimneys in order to ensure that they were free of harmful creosote deposits was the norm in England for approximately 200 years. The use of child chimney sweeps became widespread after the Great Fire of London, which occurred in September of 1666." I am not going to detail it at Christmas - it was considered  a terrible chapter of child slavery with certain death by middle-age.   And sewage on the beaches?  This is less clear - there are articles about raw sewage on the beaches last year.  It may be that he is referring to maintaining environmental standards.   These are strange references, aren't they?  Is this a remarkable statement on his part?  No - not at all.  Here's a marie claire.co.uk article HERE  - he is famous for saying dreadful, racist, sexist things.  This is the summary of his best/worst: "'But did you know that Bo-Jo also once said Hilary Clinton was ‘like a sadistic nurse in a mental hopsital’? Or that he claimed he was more likely to be ‘reincarnated as an olive’ than become the PM? Or that he said women went to university because they ‘have got to find men to marry’?" And here is his prediction for 2020:  "This is going to be a fantastic year for Britain." We are very pleased to come to the close of 2020, and hoping that some of our politicians will fade into the rear view mirror, along with this difficult year.   We do get snowy Christmases - the first picture is 2018 and the second is 2020 -  you can see our greenhouse is again its traditional white trim, and a streaking puppy is now on the scene. Purchase at: FAA - marilyncornwellart.com Redbubble - marilyncornwellart.ca

Uncertainty's the Word

The word of the year in Britain is  "Uncertainty".  Here's my image for this - how many legs does this elephant have?  How will we agree on this? The elephant looks weary of waiting for an answer.   What if I lived in Britain?  What should I worry about as the 'no deal' gets more likely?   There isn't much there. It looks like I should get an inventory of household food and products in order.  I shouldn't travel to the EU for the foreseeable future as they sort things out at borders with passports, etc. The list of things affecting the consumer are fairly short - the most important one is job loss.   Here's what the articles say. FOOD - almost 80% of food comes from the EU.  The conservative statements of possible shortages and price increases say 5%.  There have been some statements of some food prices rising 45%, but these are few.   TRAVEL - For travellers and those who work in other countries, travel will be much more complicated with passports, green cards and heal insurance replacements as the EU card ceases to exist.  But this is focused on UK and EU citizens - more than 1.3 UK citizens live in other EU countries.  So travellers beware.  For most people travel is optional.  For those who travel for work, things should be organized by now. JOB LOSSES -  this is an area to consider.  The Brexit Job Loss Index in July says that almost 250,000 people have lost jobs already with almost 7,000,000 billion pounds of annual wages lost.  Here's the article with all the details. The prediction is that 500,000 jobs will be lost.  Ireland will lose 50,000.  UK researches calculate the per capita income loss to be nearly 3,000 pounds. European countries will lose hundreds of thousands to over 1 million jobs. Doesn't this then lead to recession? RECESSION - Mark Carney the Bank of England Governor says 5.5% and not the 8% earlier forecast decline in GDP. The Guardian reported that KPMG UK's chief economist says that she expects that the economy will contract, leading to the first recession since 2009 and GDP will shrink by 1.5%. The key message in these articles:  how hard it is to predict the impacts and how hard it is to predict how companies and individuals will respond. Here's Butchart's most known garden scene.

Read past POTD's at my Blog: http://blog.marilyncornwell.com Purchase at: FAA - marilyncornwellart.com Redbubble - marilyncornwellart.ca

Brexit Now or Y2038?

exit seems similar to Year 2000 to me - a do or die scenario.  Except with Year 2000 we knew we what to do to fix it. We weren't sure how well we would cover everything.  It was a new playing field - dates were 'sprinkled' everywhere in hardware and software. The conclusion today is that it was a better safe than sorry story.  Most at risk areas were transportation (falling planes), nuclear (war) and power facilities (survival kits).  The National Geographic says that Russia, Italy and South Korea had done little to prepare.  Australia and the U.S. prepared a lot.  The estimate was that $400 billion was spent - almost half in the U.S. to upgrade hardware and software.  National Geographic says the question remains open on whether it was warranted or might have been an exaggeration - a 'hoax'.   Since then there have been smaller issues:  In 2012, the addition of an extra second between Saturday and Sunday to account for the slowing rotation of the Earth affected flight check-ins in Australia, and hit popular websites including Yelp and Foursquare. There's one on the horizon:  It is Y2038 - the next Y2K kind of issue.  The year 2038 problem is called the end of UNIX time - it is caused by 32-bit processors and the limitations of the 32-bit systems they power. When the year 2038 strikes 03:14:07 UTC on 19 March, computers still using 32-bit systems to store and process the date and time will run out of space.  Like the Y2K bug, the computers won’t be able to tell the difference between the year 2038 and 1970 – the year after which all current computer systems measure time.  Most computers are now 64-bit systems so this issue lies with older systems.  Like Y2K, the biggest concern is transportation, power and nuclear systems.   Don't these seem so simple in comparison to Britain's "Day of reckoning"?   The Guardian has a live feed that goes 5 minutes ago, 14 minutes ago, 54 minutes ago, etc. It looks like a Y2K countdown.   Should we take the advice on this coffee cup?

Words are Actions

Today's news is being called 'shocking', 'catastrophic', and 'Democracy failed us'. Brexit turned from idea into action.  U.K. voted to leave the European Union. It seems like an atomic explosion, so today's first image gives a portrayal of the emotion of the vote.  And the second image?  What will be seen behind the curtain next - what will happen?  Well, the first impact is in the headlines:  'Pound tumbles to more than 30-year low." There is much ahead of us this summer.  The roller coaster has left the station and about to embark on its journey of climbs and falls, twists and turns.