Canadian politics was dominated by Donald Trump news this past year. And 2018 was the year of Trump impeachment predictions. Scholar Allan Lichtman has predicted that Donald Trump will be impeached in 2019. He has successfully predicted 30 years of presidential elections, and predicted Trump's win in the 2016 presidential election, so people are paying attention.
Lichtman created a model with Russian Seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. It is known as the Keys to the White House. His prediction on timing is that it will be in the spring. He is promoting his book extensively on his Twitter site.
What does Wikipedia have to say about impeachment? Wikipedia's entry is 'Efforts to impeach Donald Trump'. It has extensive coverage, and includes the results of polls showing what percentage of Americans want Trump impeached.
There are several 'impeach 'o-meters' keeping track of this. I listen to CBC's Day 6 Program on Saturday mornings and they give the latest 'reading' by a political expert who estimates the odds. Odds were better last Saturday than the week before.
Since betting is a human activity, there is always somewhere to find out the odds of things. One place is Paddy Power who are reported to be saying the current odds are 6-4 that he will not stay in office through 2020 - that's a 40 percent chance.
Website Predictit.org says the latest Yes Price is 50 cents. Their odds are 43 percent up from 37 percent at the end of May.
The website odd shark.com shows the odds to be 'even money'. They considered this bad news. The website oddschecker.com (comparison site) says impeached in 2019 5/4 and in 2020 5/2. Their chart shows almost 30 betting places to compare. It makes me aware of how many people bet - supposedly 30 to 40 percent of the population.
What's ahead in 2019? Will we see this play out? The next few days and weeks will tell us what the experts have to say on this.
Today our pictures show some of the Sundance Layout in Florida.
I noticed the spring Iris, Danfordiae is blooming in my garden. Today our pictures are the Primulas in the Cole's Garden Centre. They have a polyhouse packed with pansies and primulas, so the scent is divine. And of course, the colour is intensely splendid.
A similar intensity surrounds the topic that continues in the news and conversations. I decided to check out the speculation that Trump will not last out his first term. How would one do this? By looking at betting sites. Gambling is a topic I have never investigated, so find it interesting.
In January 2018, the odds of him being impeached were 4 - 7. The Newsweek article says that oddsmakers at Paddy Power thought in January that it's nearly twice as likely Trump will be impeached as it is that he will serve four hears in office. The Newsweek article said:
"Paddy Power has additional ominous betting odds for the White House. Of the three years Trump has remaining in his presidency, the betting site has impeachment most likely in 2018. The odds that Trump is impeached in 2018 are nearly even at 5-4. For a sitting president, that doesn't paint a particularly rosy picture. The odds get exponentially better for Trump if he emerges from 2018 unscathed, as the site puts the odds at 7-1 that Trump is impeached in 2019 and 50-1 in 2020. "
We're not allowed to access the Paddy Power website. So I found a betting site that covers this in the U.S. It is oddsshark.com. There are odds on the following:
exit date
complete a full term as POTUS
convicted by the senate in his 1st term
impeached by the house in hist 1st term
resign the presidency in his 1st term
There were odds on the duration of Donald Trup's handshake with Vladimir Putin, on whether Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin would hug, on whether Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin would kiss, and then all manner of things that he'll say: best friends, comey, golden, great job, etc.
For Obama, there were bets in bad taste - assassination was one of these in the headlines. There are current bets on nuclear war due to North Korea, on the world ending, the next pope, and on and on. These are at bestcasinosites.net.
Betting turns out to be a vastly popular activity and there are many stories of famous, bizarre, and stupid/dumb bets. So back to our pictures - the Primula Festival in the garden is around the corner. I hope you enjoy these spring beauties.
