May 18 2021 - Lying in Wait

 

It is on our minds, isn't it?  What can we do and not do safely with one vaccination and then with two - completing the vaccination.  The US was all aflutter a few days ago, as the CDC came out with guidance on who can do what, depending on the vaccination status of people.  They have 4 scenarios: fully almost families with young children unvaccinated And of course, they say that the fully vaccinated can return to unmasked, free movement lives.  Supposedly that is 36% of the US population.  How many Americans remain to be vaccinated?  The number given is 40%.   That's a big spread, isn't it? So the reaction to the CDC advice was immediate.  And the four scenarios unravelled into a myriad of variations. USA Today responded with a bit of a blast:  "Most people lie about once a day, and about 25% of people lie about consequential things.  The greater the incentive and the lower the risk, the more likely people are to lie, researchers said.  "That's a major problem in the context of differing rules for vaccinated and unvaccinated people" Lee said. It's "very, very likely people are going to lie ... because there’s no verification system and no punishment."  U.S. businesses say they don't intend to ask - Disney attractions are going to stop taking temperatures.  USA Today's analogy?  "You don't use the honour system for selling houses. The higher the stakes, the higher the violations." So it occurred to me to check on how well America fares on honesty compared to other countries.  Most countries are discussing vaccination passports and identification cards - seemingly aware of honesty levels within their populations.   I went on a search to find some statistical data.  I found a research study which produced  a list of the most dishonest countries HERE.  They used two situations for their test, and the results differed by situation. What was consistent over the tests, was that the Chinese came out most dishonest overall, and Great Britain was the most honest.    Our picture today comes from the Sundance Railroad and its theme Old Faith Church seems to go with our topic of the day.

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Jan 29 2021 - Body and Soul

 

A deal with the devil is a cultural motif in European folklore, with the legend of Faust and the figure of Mephistopheles the memorable examples.  The "Bargain with the devil" constitutes motif number M210 and "Man sells soul to devil" motif number M211 in Stith Thompson's Motif-Index of Folk-Literature. There's probably a long, long list of examples.   Wikipedia says: "The search for the location of the human soul probably dates back to the awareness of such an entity. Termed atman by ancient Indian philosophers, psyche by the Greek and anima by the Romans, it has been considered resident within, but distinct from the human body. Many consider it immortal, postulating death to be the consequence of the departure of the soul from the body." I found a medical paper HERE at the National Institutes of Health website that delves into the question: Is there is any point in searching for the location of the soul?  The Medical Scientists' answer: "The answer must be in a resounding affirmative. The efforts over millennia to determine the nature and discover the location of the soul have resulted in a better understanding of the wonderful structure and function of man and his place in the cosmos."  How interesting to read an academic analysis of this question.  There is so much activity throughout medical history in seeking the answers.  For the philosophy discipline's answers to the question, the LiveScience website Here has an article - Does Your 'Self' Have a Soul?  The introduction says that the soul is far out of favour with most contemporary philosophers.   This would explain to me how the 'deal with the devil' takes the form of a cultural motif in our current thinking.  Of course you can go to 'forums' where the Q and A are on this topic...   The Sundance layout in Florida is our subject today. Purchase at: FAA - marilyncornwellart.com Redbubble - marilyncornwellart.ca

Jan 4 2020 - More about this year

Yesterday I found a ten year outlook.  Today I found one for 2020. This visual map is a presentation the analysis of the experts' predictions for this year.  The format comes from visualcapitalist.com in the article HERE.  The website presents all of its analysis with visual representations. Isn't the visual presentation appealing?  What does it reveal to put it all in one place? Well, I don't think it is all in one place.  There's no prediction for the U.S. presidential race.  They address this in the commentary - that no one is willing to predict this - but they left it out of the bingo card. That should be the centre square, to my mind.  The second observation is the lack of coverage of Brexit - I am wondering how it can have no impact on the U.S.  And finally, to cover only business and economic trends, as though social forces will not have business or economic influence, is ignoring what has been happening in the last few years. Putting this on a bingo card is worth commenting on as a key message of the analysis.  Bingo is a game a chance:  this is a cliff-hanger year.  Who will be the winner in bingo this year?    We turn to remarkable train layout scenes today - this is the Sundance display when it travelled to the Seattle train convention in 2012.  It now lives in Florida on permanent display.

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That Lucky Number Seven

We're coming up to St. Patrick's Day and it reminds us that we have an orientation towards luck.  It seems tome that mathematicians moved the term 'lucky number' into number theory.  The wikipedia entry says that it is a 'natural number' in a set which is generated by a certain 'sieve'. While the article describes a methodology that is usually seemingly obscure to us lay people, the origin isn't obscure.  It is termed the Josephus problem.   "The problem is named after Flavius Josephus, a Jewish historian living in the 1st century. According to Josephus' account of the siege of Yodfat, he and his 40 soldiers were trapped in a cave by Roman soldiers. They chose suicide over capture, and settled on a serial method of committing suicide by drawing lots. Josephus states that by luck or possibly by the hand of God, he and another man remained until the end and surrendered to the Romans rather than killing themselves." I found this an astounding story.  The wikipedia entry goes on to say that the details of the mechanism remained vague. Various mathematicians have suggested various methods - e.g. arranging the men in a circle and counting by threes to determine the order of elimination.   You can find the solution HERE. The answer is that the problem is solved when every second person is killed - but there is quite a few calculations to get to that. So a lucky number turns out to be Josephus and his companion's 'positions' in the circle.   Well, back to the social unconscious of us humans.  Here are some of the inputs to what make us humans consider some numbers to be lucky numbers: 7 - seven days of the week, 7 colours in the rainbow, 7 seas, 7 continents 3 - on the count of three, third time's the charm, three's a crowd, three strikes and you're out... 4 - four seasons, 4 elements, 4 points on the compass, four-leafed clover 8 - 8 planets, 8 notes in a musical octave See each number and its relevant luckiness summary HERE.  Today's a train day with a visit to the Sundance Layout.  Here's a picture with a person in the setting so you can get a sense of size.

A Name for All Seasons

As young people make their way into the work force of name tags at retail checkout, I get to ask them how they got their names.  Most often, these are heart-felt stories - even though the names seem unpronounceable or don't seem like names.  So I thought I should brace myself for what is coming next.  What names should we expect to hear in 2019 for brand new babies?  Good Housekeeping reports that Stormi and Dream have seen a jump after the Kardashian babies.  True and Chicago are also Kardashian children names.  These are considered "Next Jenneration" names after the Kardashian-Jenner clan.  Their boys' names are Saint and Reign. Zen names are more popular than Kardashian names.  Peace, Harmony, Hope and Shanti are the top names.  And Fortnite the online multiplayer game has inspired Ramirez, Leviathan, Bunny and Rogue. I wouldn't have guessed anyone could name their girl Kale, Kiwi, or Maple.  What about these: Clementine, Saffron, Rosemary and Sage are also there. These are food trend names. The prediction for 2019?  Sneaker brands inspire names like Van, Chuck and Taylor.  Each Brand has names associated with it.  2019 will continue with the more traditional naming practice is to mimic Royal families.  Meghan has jumped in popularity, along with Eugenie and Jack. And don't forget just 'plain' celebrities.  We can expect some names after Justin Bieber - he asked Hailey Baldwin to marry him. Another continuing trend is gender swapping.  This has been with us for more hundreds of years.  So this year's trend? Max, Tyler and Ryan are now conscripted into girl names.   There seems to be a human obsession and compulsion around first names.  There are stories after stories of strange, unusual, and bizarre names, and often famous people and celebrities are singled out.  There are many stories about rejected names where governments just can't allow the names.  Perhaps this is because names made it past government officials in the past and into the crazy names hall of fame.  I thought I'd check for trends in pretty and meaningful names.  There are lots of articles on nice and beautiful names.  Scroll through the list at popsugar.com. This is where I get to feel out of touch again. Are Caspian, Idris, Jagger, Kai, Laszlo, Adley, Ireland, and Larkin beautiful names?  And I've picked them randomly.  I checked out more to find other sites do have names that seem more appealing.  Thank goodness! Who knows what will be in place of the  check-out counter in 16 years? We may not have to brace ourselves at all. Today we see the Sundance Layout with the Denver and Rio Grande Western railway making a trip.

Dec 29 - How to Bet Trump

Canadian politics was dominated by Donald Trump news this past year.  And 2018 was the year of Trump impeachment predictions.  Scholar Allan Lichtman has predicted that Donald Trump will be impeached in 2019.  He has successfully predicted 30 years of presidential elections, and predicted Trump's win in the 2016 presidential election, so people are paying attention.   Lichtman created a model with Russian Seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.  It is known as the Keys to the White House.  His prediction on timing is that it will be in the spring.  He is promoting his book extensively on his Twitter site. What does Wikipedia have to say about impeachment?  Wikipedia's entry is 'Efforts to impeach Donald Trump'.  It has extensive coverage, and includes the results of polls showing what percentage of Americans want Trump impeached. There are several 'impeach 'o-meters' keeping track of this.  I listen to CBC's Day 6 Program on Saturday mornings and they give the latest 'reading' by a political expert who estimates the odds. Odds were better last Saturday than the week before.   Since betting is a human activity, there is always somewhere to find out the odds of things.  One place is Paddy Power who are reported to be saying the current odds are 6-4 that he will not stay in office through 2020 - that's a 40 percent chance. Website Predictit.org says the latest Yes Price is 50 cents.  Their odds are 43 percent up from 37 percent at the end of May. The website odd shark.com shows the odds to be 'even money'. They considered this bad news.   The website oddschecker.com (comparison site) says impeached in 2019 5/4 and in 2020 5/2.  Their chart shows almost 30 betting places to compare.   It makes me aware of how many people bet - supposedly 30 to 40 percent of the population. What's ahead in 2019?  Will we see this play out?  The next few days and weeks will tell us what the experts have to say on this. Today our pictures show some of the Sundance Layout in Florida.

Do Nothing Day

This is Martin Luther King Jr. Day today in the U.S.  It is also "Nothing Day" - an 'un-event" proposed in 1972 by columnist Harold Pullman Coffin.  It's been observed since 1973.  It is sponsored by Coffin's National Nothing Foundation, which is a registered foundation.  This year it coincides with Martin Luther King Jr. Day -  the third Monday of every January.   In contrast to National Nothing Day, the Realist Society of Canada (RSC) has a religious holiday called THABS ( "There has always been something" Day, pronounced ˈtæbs). THABS is dedicated to the celebration of the "realization" that "if there was ever nothing, there would be nothing now". It is celebrated July 8 of each year. Today's pictures are the Sundance Central Railroad Train Layout now in permanent residence in Odessa, just outside of Orlando, FL.  These are scenes adjacent to each. The Facebook page is here and the website is susndancecentral.org and there are lots of pictures on pinterest.

Are the trains on schedule?

The Sundance and Dolly Vardon Layouts are now in Florida in a permanent site, so we won't see this at the convention in Augusta, Maine September 7 - 10. This is a great part of the U.S. to visit for cuisine. Maine is very proud of its lobster rolls and crab cakes.  There will be many lobster roll signs at casual restaurants as the peak season is in late summer. The Maine Sea Grant site says they are caught and put in enclosed pounds in Maine bays, so they can be shipped in winter.  The crab season is year-round with two types of crab - rock crabs and Jonah crabs.  So we can expect unlimited crab cakes on the menus too. If this weren't enough of a specialty, this is where clam chowder comes from.  It was introduced as a common dish by the 1700s. Herman Melville described it in Moby Dick, his great novel. The chefs of the east coast seem to consider clam chowder a dish where their creativity is expressed, so there are great culinary experiences waiting for us.

Endless Summer Train

It is a perfect summer day and it is a train day. There is endless summer on the Rio Grande Sundance Layout - not like a garden that transitions through the seasons, so enjoy this peak of summer with its perfect weather and holidays. Today's feature is smoke - it seems like magic to have this on the layout.

ON Gulliver's Point of View

A layout has the advantage of viewing from above as well as at 'ground level'.  This shed has a story from above and a story inside.  Of course, it has stories all around it.  Think of how many individual pieces are needed to create a scene like this.  It looks like hundreds to me.   The bottom building was created by Brian Nolan and is a machine shop.  The many thousands of parts all relate to the building's purpose:  can you imagine the work effort to assemble and create all the machine-related parts inside?    Gulliver often comes to mind when I look at model layouts, in particular, Gulliver's experience with the Lilliputians.  Gulliver's Travels was written by Jonathan Swift and published in 1726.  The name Gulliver was first recorded in the Domesday Book of 1086, in the form of Golafre - a derivation of Old French for glutton. The source for this is the Internet Surname Database. In the novel, the name is believed to be a portmanteau of the words Gullible and Traveler.

Let's Take the Easter Train

Wake Up on the Bright Side There are a number of Easter Train rides available in the United States and other countries. For example, there is an Easter Train in Vancouver's Stanley Park and the Durango & Silverton has Snoopy the Easter Beagle.  Today, though, we are in search of unusual Easter traditions.  We know about pickles and spider webs as decorations on Christmas Trees. What unusual traditions are there for Easter? "The French town of Haux serves a giant omelet made with over 4,500 eggs in the main square. This custom dates back to the early 19th century when Napoleon, who loved omelets, stopped in Haux to eat one. He allegedly liked his so much that he ordered the locals to gather their eggs and make a giant omelet for his entire army the following day." "On Good Friday in Bermuda, locals fly homemade kites. The tradition is believed to have started when a teacher from the British Army tried to explain Christ’s ascension to heaven to his Sunday school class. When the children had difficulty understanding the concept, he made a kite, traditionally shaped like a cross, to illustrate the story." "In the U.S., the President hosts an annual Easter Egg Roll on Easter Monday. The tradition dates back to 1878 when children first rolled dyed hard-boiled eggs down the White House lawn."

In the Details of the Sundance Layout

The Sundance Layout has so much detailing.  At one scene, one of the Sundance crew shone a flashlight inside the building to see the complexity.  At another point, I was looking at the man at the river, and then noticed the bear in the background climbing the trestle bridge.  So much to enjoy.